First, I share your general optimism about Japan's future. However, this may be for different reasons.
While your vision of Japan as a global negotiator among the superpowers is aspirational, is it really possible? Who would take the lead? While there may be some charismatic leaders here and there, Japan doesn't seem to have enough human talent to be taken seriously.
Moreover, the country is still very much a gerontocracy in desperate need of new political leadership (and not just a new face who is a fourth-generation Diet member). Before any attempt at a greater global role, Japan must first get its own house in order -- including finding a way to allow 50% of its population (aka women) to play a larger, upfront role in managing every aspect of society.
My gut feeling is that post-industrial Japan will, in fact, retreat from the global stage and simply find a way to live comfortably off its asset-based economy. I'm still committed as a long-term permanent resident, and we'll see what happens.
The question might be to examine what Pax [country]
"There is literally no area in both hard- and soft-power where Japan dominates the world"
Generally, this is the context for a strong regional power, and I am struggling to think of a regional power that managed to provide an alternative global platform of the kind you are describing in the modern age. Nations have played kingmaker or patron, the movement of Dutch wealth to England laying the foundation for the GBE, Japan investing infrastructure, loans, technology in Indonesia or Vietnam. Providing a different global approach requires incredible outlays and sacrifice. It is money that won't go to public subsidies, infrastructure, ect. Every generation of Japanese leadership looks at the costs and decides that effort and money should be spent either at home or nearby.
I think this points to what another commenter mentioned about getting more Japanese women into what I assume is politics, it is the same question for whether young people want to make the sacrifice and risk to provide another perspective, instead of viewing it as a just burden for people who graduated from Todai.
Nice piece, Jesper. You say in the preamble that "What has taken me by surprise is the overwhelmingly enthusiastic response from Japanese readers" to your original article. I am not surprised (even though I did not read the version you provided to the Nikkei.)
I think many in Japan are wary of a wayward US and weary of a militarily adventuristic China. If Japan can play a central part in bringing down the temperature in global hot spots, so much the better. If soft power is the ability to coopt rather than to coerce, surely Japan has it, precisely because it lacks the hard power and is therefore not a realistic military threat.
There is nothing unusual about the relative shortage of strong leaders in Japanese politics and on the global stage. Who have we had that might claim that title in recent decades? Nakasonoe, Koizumi and Abe? That is three out of the 23 prime ministers since 1980. Japan usually gets things done collectively, instead of under a powerful individual leadership. That approach should continue to work.
Japan should become the leader in digital security. This is the single area that requires a new centre of gravity, and one US and China have sacrificed in the name of capitalism and state power, respectively.
Focusing on this area defends against real and perceived threats of AI, relatively small outlay on infrastructure, nor does it sacrifice Japans existing asset base. Without striking at the heart of either dominant system today, there will be not change.
The real question is, how? As someone who has been monitoring the Japan situation long-term from afar, I don't see commitment from its leadership towards being the global leader in anything. I see confusion on how to move forward.
This is the time where a populist leader could stand up and grab people's attention. It's happening across the world as conservative leaders rise up and take the reins: USA, Germany, New Zealand, Georgia. (Well, Trump will never be a conservative, but he does represent that party, for better or for worse.)
Does Japan have a populist leader in the wings with strong character and a willingness to be hated, someone who can stand up to world criticism, especially that of the United States, and say, 'No, we are forging a new future for Japan'?
First, I share your general optimism about Japan's future. However, this may be for different reasons.
While your vision of Japan as a global negotiator among the superpowers is aspirational, is it really possible? Who would take the lead? While there may be some charismatic leaders here and there, Japan doesn't seem to have enough human talent to be taken seriously.
Moreover, the country is still very much a gerontocracy in desperate need of new political leadership (and not just a new face who is a fourth-generation Diet member). Before any attempt at a greater global role, Japan must first get its own house in order -- including finding a way to allow 50% of its population (aka women) to play a larger, upfront role in managing every aspect of society.
My gut feeling is that post-industrial Japan will, in fact, retreat from the global stage and simply find a way to live comfortably off its asset-based economy. I'm still committed as a long-term permanent resident, and we'll see what happens.
The question might be to examine what Pax [country]
"There is literally no area in both hard- and soft-power where Japan dominates the world"
Generally, this is the context for a strong regional power, and I am struggling to think of a regional power that managed to provide an alternative global platform of the kind you are describing in the modern age. Nations have played kingmaker or patron, the movement of Dutch wealth to England laying the foundation for the GBE, Japan investing infrastructure, loans, technology in Indonesia or Vietnam. Providing a different global approach requires incredible outlays and sacrifice. It is money that won't go to public subsidies, infrastructure, ect. Every generation of Japanese leadership looks at the costs and decides that effort and money should be spent either at home or nearby.
I think this points to what another commenter mentioned about getting more Japanese women into what I assume is politics, it is the same question for whether young people want to make the sacrifice and risk to provide another perspective, instead of viewing it as a just burden for people who graduated from Todai.
**the question might be to examine what Pax [country] means in the modern age.
Nice conclusion, "‘Pax Nipponica’ is an ambition the world is waiting for, and Japan’s elite should embrace. As a Japan optimist, I hope they will."
Nice piece, Jesper. You say in the preamble that "What has taken me by surprise is the overwhelmingly enthusiastic response from Japanese readers" to your original article. I am not surprised (even though I did not read the version you provided to the Nikkei.)
I think many in Japan are wary of a wayward US and weary of a militarily adventuristic China. If Japan can play a central part in bringing down the temperature in global hot spots, so much the better. If soft power is the ability to coopt rather than to coerce, surely Japan has it, precisely because it lacks the hard power and is therefore not a realistic military threat.
There is nothing unusual about the relative shortage of strong leaders in Japanese politics and on the global stage. Who have we had that might claim that title in recent decades? Nakasonoe, Koizumi and Abe? That is three out of the 23 prime ministers since 1980. Japan usually gets things done collectively, instead of under a powerful individual leadership. That approach should continue to work.
Japan should become the leader in digital security. This is the single area that requires a new centre of gravity, and one US and China have sacrificed in the name of capitalism and state power, respectively.
Focusing on this area defends against real and perceived threats of AI, relatively small outlay on infrastructure, nor does it sacrifice Japans existing asset base. Without striking at the heart of either dominant system today, there will be not change.
Short but sweet.
The real question is, how? As someone who has been monitoring the Japan situation long-term from afar, I don't see commitment from its leadership towards being the global leader in anything. I see confusion on how to move forward.
This is the time where a populist leader could stand up and grab people's attention. It's happening across the world as conservative leaders rise up and take the reins: USA, Germany, New Zealand, Georgia. (Well, Trump will never be a conservative, but he does represent that party, for better or for worse.)
Does Japan have a populist leader in the wings with strong character and a willingness to be hated, someone who can stand up to world criticism, especially that of the United States, and say, 'No, we are forging a new future for Japan'?
"[Japan] is the world’s only true post-industrial society" I would be interested in knowing what metrics you used to decide this.