Here a couple of comments I received via private mail that stuck me :
+ From a longtime professional Japan observer:
"The part I most agree with: the biggest domestic discontent against constitutional reform is not necessarily against the potential turn towards forward projection of force, but the potential inward restrictions on individual rights and freedoms."
--> yes, I am convinced that while the article 9 revision debate is obviously important for global affairs, it all too often distracts from some of the debates around the primary domestic paragraphs and nuances floated.
+ from a well known senior global economic commentator :
"This is very interesting. But Japan cannot be a tier-one nation. There are only two that can be. Japan can be at the top of the second tier."
--> probably the right way to frame global power realities; but America demands from her allies to be ambitious and aspirational, and that is what Japan was in danger of losing.
+ from a Japanese Member of Parliament :
"You're always too optimistic on Japan, but this time you're right to point the high degree of coordination and administrative competence of Abe Shinzo's cabinets; but you have to admit that the first half of Abe's reign was much more powerful than the second half."
--> The forced resignation of Amari Akira end-January 2016 marked, in my personal view, the inflection in Abe Shinzo's policy initiative momentum. Loosing a key dealmaker and admired expert policymaker who could get even the most stubborn technocrat back in-line with "Team Abe" was the beginning of Kasumigaseki's elite clawing back power over the Kantei PM offices. The fact that the political fund problems for Amari started shortly after Abe decided to post-pone the VAT hike is one of the more interesting great coincidences and mysteries in Japanese power politics.
+ from a Japanese university president :
"You are right on Abe, but wrong on Kishida".
--> as I wrote, different times demand different leaders. Abe knew what he wanted, and had the team to get things done at unprecedented speed. Clearly, Kishida is very different; whether today's Japan can afford the luxury of more contemplative, less decisive, less reform-minded leadership remains to be seen. The first real test will come in November/December when Kishida will have to present his first real budget - lofty promises of 'new capitalism' get stale quickly if not followed by concrete fiscal incentives and re-direction of budget allocations. Let's hope that we'll get more significant and ambitious reforms across both revenues and expenditures, rather than just beefed-up defense spending.
Isn't the concept of a 'tier one' nation a bit disgusting. I know what you are driving at but it smacks of elitism. Wasn't in the South African Apartheid regime who recognised the Japanese as honorary 'whites'. It feels like labelling yourself a 'tier one' nation is like a licence to colonise and exploit the lesser tiers. I think you could benefit from reading some Chomsky and David Graeber ;)
I appreciate your opinion and insights as usual. I realize that this was intended to be more of a love-letter than an analysis of Abe's reign, but it's hard to overlook his failings in several areas. 1. His empowerment of women was nothing more than political theater. There are no results to point to, and Japan is still almost dead last globally in metrics, in the club with Islamic dictatorships. 2. There has not even been an attempt to address the rights of minorities, immigrants, the disabled, and the LGBT communities. 3. It's pretty easy to make "risky" political decisions, like some you listed above, when you are printing money and buying votes at the expense of the country's future. The books are a disaster and future governments are now boxed into low interest rates or they cannot service the debt. 4. A lack of labour reform has made the job market uncompetitive with wage stagnation and a dire lack of skills that the market actually requires. 5. Japanese companies have been hoarding profits which has also flat-lined wages and killed consumption. In summary, I personally find Abe's record to be an utter failure. He printed money to paper-over problems and the chickens are going to come to roost very soon, and it will be a disaster for Japan.
Thank you, Trevor, for your frank assessment and outlook. I was going to add a section on Abe's frustrations, outlining, for example, the entrenched resistance against labor reform from corporate leaders; but I decided to deal with this in a forthcoming piece. Please stay tuned & keep it coming ; Many cheers ;-j
Here a couple of comments I received via private mail that stuck me :
+ From a longtime professional Japan observer:
"The part I most agree with: the biggest domestic discontent against constitutional reform is not necessarily against the potential turn towards forward projection of force, but the potential inward restrictions on individual rights and freedoms."
--> yes, I am convinced that while the article 9 revision debate is obviously important for global affairs, it all too often distracts from some of the debates around the primary domestic paragraphs and nuances floated.
+ from a well known senior global economic commentator :
"This is very interesting. But Japan cannot be a tier-one nation. There are only two that can be. Japan can be at the top of the second tier."
--> probably the right way to frame global power realities; but America demands from her allies to be ambitious and aspirational, and that is what Japan was in danger of losing.
+ from a Japanese Member of Parliament :
"You're always too optimistic on Japan, but this time you're right to point the high degree of coordination and administrative competence of Abe Shinzo's cabinets; but you have to admit that the first half of Abe's reign was much more powerful than the second half."
--> The forced resignation of Amari Akira end-January 2016 marked, in my personal view, the inflection in Abe Shinzo's policy initiative momentum. Loosing a key dealmaker and admired expert policymaker who could get even the most stubborn technocrat back in-line with "Team Abe" was the beginning of Kasumigaseki's elite clawing back power over the Kantei PM offices. The fact that the political fund problems for Amari started shortly after Abe decided to post-pone the VAT hike is one of the more interesting great coincidences and mysteries in Japanese power politics.
+ from a Japanese university president :
"You are right on Abe, but wrong on Kishida".
--> as I wrote, different times demand different leaders. Abe knew what he wanted, and had the team to get things done at unprecedented speed. Clearly, Kishida is very different; whether today's Japan can afford the luxury of more contemplative, less decisive, less reform-minded leadership remains to be seen. The first real test will come in November/December when Kishida will have to present his first real budget - lofty promises of 'new capitalism' get stale quickly if not followed by concrete fiscal incentives and re-direction of budget allocations. Let's hope that we'll get more significant and ambitious reforms across both revenues and expenditures, rather than just beefed-up defense spending.
Thank you for sharing this detailed analysis. By the way, what has happened to Taro Kono?
Isn't the concept of a 'tier one' nation a bit disgusting. I know what you are driving at but it smacks of elitism. Wasn't in the South African Apartheid regime who recognised the Japanese as honorary 'whites'. It feels like labelling yourself a 'tier one' nation is like a licence to colonise and exploit the lesser tiers. I think you could benefit from reading some Chomsky and David Graeber ;)
I appreciate your opinion and insights as usual. I realize that this was intended to be more of a love-letter than an analysis of Abe's reign, but it's hard to overlook his failings in several areas. 1. His empowerment of women was nothing more than political theater. There are no results to point to, and Japan is still almost dead last globally in metrics, in the club with Islamic dictatorships. 2. There has not even been an attempt to address the rights of minorities, immigrants, the disabled, and the LGBT communities. 3. It's pretty easy to make "risky" political decisions, like some you listed above, when you are printing money and buying votes at the expense of the country's future. The books are a disaster and future governments are now boxed into low interest rates or they cannot service the debt. 4. A lack of labour reform has made the job market uncompetitive with wage stagnation and a dire lack of skills that the market actually requires. 5. Japanese companies have been hoarding profits which has also flat-lined wages and killed consumption. In summary, I personally find Abe's record to be an utter failure. He printed money to paper-over problems and the chickens are going to come to roost very soon, and it will be a disaster for Japan.
Thank you, Trevor, for your frank assessment and outlook. I was going to add a section on Abe's frustrations, outlining, for example, the entrenched resistance against labor reform from corporate leaders; but I decided to deal with this in a forthcoming piece. Please stay tuned & keep it coming ; Many cheers ;-j