Japanese politics is approaching a breaking point - the people are angry at inflation & immigration; and the LDP is being disrupted by MAGA and the new US leadership style
Thanks for this interesting and informative piece.
Regarding SanSeito: interesting rebranding, and I can see the appeal of something that shakes up the usual political messaging. But slogans aside, it's the content that matters — and personally, I find their manifesto troubling. Let’s hope the youth vote looks beyond the noise and asks the harder questions.
Ok so there are some epic external challenges out there (Trump, WWIII…) and natural disasters will always hit the headlines BUT
As you say the elephant in the room domestically is the painfully unhelpful legislation around the agri sector in Japan. As an individual with a fulltime office job, I can own farmland and write off any amount of agri-toys that I use on my 1,000m2 “farm”, against my personal tax bill without producing much of anything.
A family office with agri experience on three continents wanting to invest several $10m in specialist farming in Kyushu… cannot.
Agri reform is the domestic battle that Japan MUST win.
I have been living in Japan for almost 20 years, living through the change you and others write about. There is question I have been puzzled by for all my life and in the now and here, it is at the center of life: How does everybody, including YOU write about an inflation rate of a few percent? That maybe true for someone buying a Rolls Royce once a week, for an average Japanese family figures like 3.7% are an insult. When I do my weekly big shopping at my AEON supermarket, and buy the same item I bought 3 years ago, what I pay is basically double! The price for most items has almost doubled! On top of it, the value of the Yen has diminished my saving to a worth of about 70%. And not even you in this excellent analysis spell out what is the simple truth for every citizen of this country! Why?
While stability is important, and the bureaucracy will be able to maintain things, they won’t be able to come up with ideas or actions that address a lot of the challenges we face in Japan. For that we need political leaders with some kind of policy agenda. As such, if things are left to the bureaucracy, there will be a continuation of Japan’s ossification or continued stagnation, and the issues of concern will just get worse.
The bureaucracy won’t be able to respond to a lot of the issues which are important to me, like
- no agenda to tackle or mitigate the extreme heat we see in Tokyo these days (like more trees, new ways of working, building standards etc…)
- continued decline in number of births (no change to how births are charged, continued lack of nurseries, nursery fees, school fees, lack of play areas)
- no new agenda to sustainably handle tourism and tourism infrastructures
- nothing new to upgrade the urban environment and the wild chaos on pavements
There are surely other things as well.
I only see these things being resolved in the next twenty or thirty years given the pace at which Japan’s politicians and elites currently operate. Even something as uncontroversial, and something which was settled decades ago in other countries, such as allowing couples to have different surnames still can’t be resolved. What hope is there for other more solid issues to be really addressed?
Against this failure to address these issues, a new charismatic leader may indeed come and save us, but they might not necessarily be someone we will like, they could indeed be of the MAGA variety, or they may never arrive…
Fascinating.. definitely I was curious of the effect of over tourism and the cultural effects of immigration..somehow I hope Japan can keep and cherish most of the generational traditions and thrive. Such an important balance.
Yes, old-guard LDP trying to reshuffle old faction allegiance is of course going on — and Motegi fits that bill….it’s what killed the LDP in the early 1990s…..and LDP elders supporting someone who’s primary appeal is to supposedly a Trump Whisperer are putting the cart before the horse: Trump supports leaders who are popular with the base, and despises leaders chosen by political elites…many cheers ;-j
Jesper, not to pre-empt your piece on San Seito, but what is this 'moderate' solution to immigration? Does it address both permanent immigration and excessive emphasis on tourism? Where is Japan heading in terms of a uniquely Japanese policy for immigration?
This requires more thorough analysis but Japan’s immigration is “unique” because their is de-facto no asylum or refugee option — you must be sponsored with a guarantor or self-employed with a credible business plan ; SanSeito
SanSeiTo now wants to take this further and enshrine that rights to political participation are not given to first generation naturalized citizens — they are fully committed to have non-Japan workers as a strategy cushioning the labor-force decline— more on this soon — many cheers ;-j
Thanks for this interesting and informative piece.
Regarding SanSeito: interesting rebranding, and I can see the appeal of something that shakes up the usual political messaging. But slogans aside, it's the content that matters — and personally, I find their manifesto troubling. Let’s hope the youth vote looks beyond the noise and asks the harder questions.
私たちはトランプさんを非常に尊敬しています。
This is a great post! I just discovered and I will be subscribing. I've got a newsletter about Japan and Japanese politics, feel free to check it out. https://open.substack.com/pub/nihonpolitics?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=j303a
Ok so there are some epic external challenges out there (Trump, WWIII…) and natural disasters will always hit the headlines BUT
As you say the elephant in the room domestically is the painfully unhelpful legislation around the agri sector in Japan. As an individual with a fulltime office job, I can own farmland and write off any amount of agri-toys that I use on my 1,000m2 “farm”, against my personal tax bill without producing much of anything.
A family office with agri experience on three continents wanting to invest several $10m in specialist farming in Kyushu… cannot.
Agri reform is the domestic battle that Japan MUST win.
Great piece, thanks for sharing .
I have been living in Japan for almost 20 years, living through the change you and others write about. There is question I have been puzzled by for all my life and in the now and here, it is at the center of life: How does everybody, including YOU write about an inflation rate of a few percent? That maybe true for someone buying a Rolls Royce once a week, for an average Japanese family figures like 3.7% are an insult. When I do my weekly big shopping at my AEON supermarket, and buy the same item I bought 3 years ago, what I pay is basically double! The price for most items has almost doubled! On top of it, the value of the Yen has diminished my saving to a worth of about 70%. And not even you in this excellent analysis spell out what is the simple truth for every citizen of this country! Why?
While stability is important, and the bureaucracy will be able to maintain things, they won’t be able to come up with ideas or actions that address a lot of the challenges we face in Japan. For that we need political leaders with some kind of policy agenda. As such, if things are left to the bureaucracy, there will be a continuation of Japan’s ossification or continued stagnation, and the issues of concern will just get worse.
The bureaucracy won’t be able to respond to a lot of the issues which are important to me, like
- no agenda to tackle or mitigate the extreme heat we see in Tokyo these days (like more trees, new ways of working, building standards etc…)
- continued decline in number of births (no change to how births are charged, continued lack of nurseries, nursery fees, school fees, lack of play areas)
- no new agenda to sustainably handle tourism and tourism infrastructures
- nothing new to upgrade the urban environment and the wild chaos on pavements
There are surely other things as well.
I only see these things being resolved in the next twenty or thirty years given the pace at which Japan’s politicians and elites currently operate. Even something as uncontroversial, and something which was settled decades ago in other countries, such as allowing couples to have different surnames still can’t be resolved. What hope is there for other more solid issues to be really addressed?
Against this failure to address these issues, a new charismatic leader may indeed come and save us, but they might not necessarily be someone we will like, they could indeed be of the MAGA variety, or they may never arrive…
Fascinating.. definitely I was curious of the effect of over tourism and the cultural effects of immigration..somehow I hope Japan can keep and cherish most of the generational traditions and thrive. Such an important balance.
Thank you.
Great article, thank you!
Thank you, Julian, for your kind words — more soon & many cheers ;-j
What about Motegi as the prime minister candidate? He’s been hanging out with Kishida and Aso often lately
Yes, old-guard LDP trying to reshuffle old faction allegiance is of course going on — and Motegi fits that bill….it’s what killed the LDP in the early 1990s…..and LDP elders supporting someone who’s primary appeal is to supposedly a Trump Whisperer are putting the cart before the horse: Trump supports leaders who are popular with the base, and despises leaders chosen by political elites…many cheers ;-j
Jesper, not to pre-empt your piece on San Seito, but what is this 'moderate' solution to immigration? Does it address both permanent immigration and excessive emphasis on tourism? Where is Japan heading in terms of a uniquely Japanese policy for immigration?
This requires more thorough analysis but Japan’s immigration is “unique” because their is de-facto no asylum or refugee option — you must be sponsored with a guarantor or self-employed with a credible business plan ; SanSeito
SanSeiTo now wants to take this further and enshrine that rights to political participation are not given to first generation naturalized citizens — they are fully committed to have non-Japan workers as a strategy cushioning the labor-force decline— more on this soon — many cheers ;-j
>the SanSeiTo is far from being anything like the AFD in Germany or other nationalist parties...
How so do you mean, exactly?
I'm pretty sure "dynamic leader" Kamiya is on record saying he considers AfD (and RN, etc) his peers.